Risk On
This week’s Inside Squared Brackets noted a curious fact. The 2026 World Cup is the highest-scoring in more than half a century — nearly 2.9 goals a game, the most since 1970 — and yet it has awarded fewer penalties per match than any tournament since the video assistant referee arrived. More attacking, less adjudicated: […]
Grounding Clouds
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY April’s inflation print settled last week’s argument for us: at 3.8 per cent and energy-driven, the shock has arrived in the data rather than the headlines. Wednesday’s thirty-year auction cleared above five per cent for the first time since 2007. The comforting reflex — that America has plenty of energy — answers a […]
Gilt by Association
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The US 30-year sits a few basis points below an eighteen-year high. We read the move as a global repricing of long duration rather than a domestic Treasury problem. The front-end logic is easier to read abroad than in Washington: both the Bank of England and the ECB are repricing towards tightening on […]
Irreconcilable Differences
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The index has never been more concentrated; its members have rarely agreed less. Concentration is a weight. Correlation is a behaviour. April confounded the two. Alphabet rose 34 per cent — its best month since 2004 — in the same month its supposed confederates fell on the same sessions. The Magnificent Seven has […]
Market Pulse: Jun-25
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Market Pulse: Jul-25
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Market Pulse: Aug-25
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Market Pulse: End – December 2024
Federal Reserve Spoils The Party On Rates As Markets Retreat EQUITY MARKETS Markets were mostly in the red as the Federal Reserve’s view of a slowing rate-cutting cycle discouraged investors from bidding further in stock markets. The downside was most pronounced for U.S. equities, while European equity markets drew interest. The S&P 500 posted a […]
Market Pulse: Mid Of May 2025
Equity Markets Snap Back From The Abyss Of Uncertainty EQUITY MARKETS Equity markets around the globe rebounded from the heightened uncertainty as the VIX index continued its gradual descent. Trump’s hardline approach did not sit well with markets, as valuations were shaken, leading to increased volatility. As equity risk premiums rose and credit markets grew […]
Market Pulse: May 2024 Market Review
Stock Indices Have Quickly Recovered The Ground Lost In A Turbulent April, As Inflation Data Stabilised After A Streak Of Hotter Than Expected Readings. Market Rebound: All three US indices have closed at record highs once more, as interest rates have receded. Performance Highlights: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is eyeing 40,000 and the S&P […]