Game Boy
Game Boy Asset Allocation Outlook Q1 2025 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Tariff talk could well be a catalyst for a deeper correction GDP data is tracking well, yet the potential for upside surprises in inflation does not negate the potential for a sharp economic slowdown Both the US Government, and consumer, largely responsible for extending the business […]
Podcast Politics
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The largest election day market move will need to consolidate US Federal Reserve seeks to dampen expectations of further immediate interest rates cuts. US inflation measures, such as supercore, begin to track higher. New administration policies will be inflationary, at least at the margin, yet generally earnings-supportive. Pick you spots – we expect […]
Bits, Bytes and Base Pairs
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AI’s ‘mania’ by some measures already dwarfs that of the 2000’s TMT bubble; As the poster boy for the bull market, NVIDIA’s recent price action is parabolic and a trend ending signal; Economic data is beginning to disappoint, softer real retail sales often forebodes higher unemployment numbers; Yet other economic data paints a […]
The Half Penny Place
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Markets are beginning to price in a higher probability of a growth re-acceleration; In doing so, our Regime readings have moved towards REFLATION, requiring tactical shifts; Inflation readings are bottoming out, the ‘last mile’ to the Fed’s 2% target seems problematic; Precious Metals begin to shine – entering the next stage of the […]
All’s Well That Ends Well
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The prevailing theme of 2023 was ‘disinflation’ ultimately providing fertile ground for equity market returns Recession concerns have been overplayed, and perhaps a corporate earnings recession was hiding in plain sight and now is in the rear view mirror Predictable late year rallies support the ‘softish landing’ narrative, as liquidity improved and central […]
Recession Obsession
The impact of historic coordinated global policy tightening (read: interest rate hikes), continues to ripple across financial markets, although the smoke is clearing; Whilst many prognosticators, justified by leading indicators, point towards recession, the odds do seem high that it ultimately transpires. However, as yet the data is not confirming a material slowdown; Inflation vs […]
Bear With Me
A bear market which is in essence a valuation reset is very different (typically shorter and shallower) than a bear driven by recession; The US has recorded negative GDP growth led not by the consumer, but by rising inventories and falling exports; We are in the late phases of the market cycle and the economic […]
Inflation In Things We Want, Deflation In Things We Don’t Want
The war in Ukraine, China’s sweeping lockdowns, soaring inflation, shortages of energy and key commodities, and the Fed’s tightening policy, are all taking their toll on equity and bond markets. The World Bank, IMF and major banks have slashed their growth projections, and concerns are mounting that the global economy could soon tip into recession. […]
Gone Viral
From the outset we just wanted to make mention of the fact that this must be the third iteration of the intended client updates. The pace of developments have meant each previous version, within a matter hours, seemed out of date – even just this weekend’s announcements from Germany brings reason to update our comments. […]
Role Reversal
The storm clouds are gathering for 2022. After years of ultra-accommodative fiscal and monetary measures, policymakers have set their stall out, and look set to remove the punch bowl next year. At year end, markets face the prospect of at an accelerated tapering, rising Central Bank interest rates, and for those of a US inclination, […]